What a week it has been weatherwise.
Today MetService has issued a severe weather warning for heavy snow over parts of South Island. Looking back over the past week, it is unusual for a single weather event to result in severe weather warnings for all of widespread heavy rain, severe gales and heavy snow. But this event has been far from typical in its severity and longevity.
The media have extensively reported the full impacts of the storm, so I won't go into that here. Instead I'll look a little more deeply into the meteorology of what's been going on, starting from day one.
Here is an animation of the surface weather maps starting midnight on Friday 21 May - frames are every six hours throughout the event, and the isobars are at 2 hPa spacing:
Loop of isobaric weather maps from midnight 21 May to midday 27 May 2010. Data courtesy US Global Forecast System (GFS)
There is a lot going on in these surface maps. To give a full account of what's been happening I should really include a discussion about the weather in the upper air - but to keep this post short I'll concentrate just on the surface here. Points to note from the maps are:
- at the start of the loop, an old Low over the south Tasman Sea weakens
- a new Low forms off the south Queensland coast, then moves southeastwards towards New Zealand and deepens
- a second Low centre forms west of North Island, then a third forms over Bay of Plenty
- the third Low takes a very unusual track, moving south then southwestwards towards Canterbury
- a High moves onto the south Tasman Sea and stays there for the rest of the period
- a very strong east to southeasterly airstream develops over the bottom half of South Island
- the Queensland Low eventually moves eastwards over North Island
The centre of the Queensland Low took a rather convoluted track as it approached us:
I guess you could say it "looped the loop" near longitude 170E. This was caused by the formation of the secondary and tertiary Low centres that shifted the "centre of gravity" of the broader system away from the originating Low.
If you look again closely at the loop of weather maps above, you'll notice that just after halfway through, the second and third Lows are dumb-belling cyclonically around each other over New Zealand. This motion occurs when a multi-centred Low develops - we sometimes call these systems complex lows. The combined motion plus the spiralling bands of precipitation were well captured by our current radar network.
The following animation shows where our weather radar is detecting rainfall-sized drops, and the shape of the rain areas illustrates the position and movement of the Lows. Pictures are seven minutes apart and cover the period from the evening of 25 May to the early hours of 26 May. Light falls are yellow and heavier falls blue.