About Ross Marsden

Ross has worked for MetService since February 1977 when he joined as a Meteorologist Trainee. Most of the time Ross has worked as a forecaster in one or other of the disciplines: aviation, marine, public, warnings, analysis and prognosis. He has worked at Kelburn most of the time, but he has also worked at the Auckland City office and the Whenuapai office (both now closed). Ross had two secondments to the Fiji Meteorological Service: one in the early 1980s, and again in the late 1990s. Since 2002, His position has been Consultant Meteorologist. Ross is interested in old machinery, and most Saturdays you will find him on the floating crane, Hikitia http://www.maanz.wellington.net.nz/hikitia/index.html, which is berthed at Taranaki Wharf, near Te Papa, Wellington.

Our Weather Stations – considerations about their location

Lately, during this spell of fine sunny weather, there have been a lot of comments about the air temperatures we are showing on our web site, where they are measured and opinions about them. In this Blog post I will explain the reasons for the location of our weather stations. I will also offer some help about how you can get some use from the information they provide.

Early observations
The longest established weather stations are located in municipal gardens, and key places around the coast. In municipal gardens because in the late 1800s and early 1900s, meteorology was a new science and organisations like the Royal Society wanted to establish temperature and rainfall records in places that would be safe from needing to close or move. Around the coast because the weather-sensitive activity of high value at the time was coastal shipping. Lighthouse keepers and harbour authorities reported the weather conditions on a routine basis.

Puysegur Point, view to the west

The rise of aviation
During WW2, aviation became important. We needed to accommodate a rapidly growing Air Force and train the air crews. Meteorological staff or Control Tower staff made hourly weather reports, or more often as required. After WW2 there was a steep rise in the popularity of air travel and most of the airfields that were air bases used for pilot training were re-purposed to become airports and new ones were built; for example Rongotai and Mangere.

Napier Airport, NZNR, view to the east

Aerodromes often (but not always) provide ideal weather observing sites with wide open spaces that satisfy World Meteorological Organisation exposure criteria very well. The trouble though, is that while they’re perfect for meteorology, temperatures measured there can be very different from what people ‘feel’ and increasingly measure with low-cost weather stations around their towns and homes. More about this later.

Automation
During the 1980s the Ministry of Transport decided to de-man the lighthouses, but weather reports were still required, so that began the development of automated weather observations. There have been several generations of AWS (Automatic Weather Station) over the years, and that continued as the airport stations were de-manned of weather observers. Airport AWS are now quite sophisticated in that, as well as the usual meteorological elements,  they can detect up to 3 cloud layers (up to the cirrus level), measure horizontal visibility and even detect what kind of precipitation is falling – hail, snow, rain, showers, and the presence of mist or fog. Increasingly they are including webcams.

Locations for stations
Land transport and its safety concerns have led to the location of a class of weather stations for that purpose –Desert Road Summit, Arthurs Pass, Rimutaka Hill Summit are examples.

The observing network continues to grow by trying to fill in the gaps between the coastal stations and the airfields. Some stations are located in strategic places to solve a particular weather monitoring or forecasting problem – Golden Valley, Galatea, Flat Hills, Culverden, Fairlie, Roxburgh, Birchwood, Slipper Island, Le Bons Bay, are all examples of this.

Whangaparaoa, looking south

Good AWS observing sites are fairly hard to find. They need to be secure from vandalism. They need to have good unobstructed exposure for wind, rain and temperature. Access to power and communications needs to be reliable. Most urban and suburban areas are not suitable because of lack of security, or because of obstructions or poor and unrepresentative exposure for wind, rain and temperature. Large parks and sports fields are the best prospects. Ideally the station should be located in a flat grassed area with nearest obstruction 10 times its height away from the enclosure. Schools are probably worth considering. Lumsden AWS is located in the local high school grounds.

Lumsden, looking south

Aside from exposure considerations of the site, the instruments – particularly the thermometers – have to be housed in a screen. The old style screen (see the Whangaparaoa photo) is a wooden cabinet, painted flat white with louvred sides, mounted 1.25 metres above the ground. This shades the thermometers from the direct sun, and provides ventilation. Modern modular automatic weather stations have a smaller plastic “screen” to shade and ventilate the instruments. The combination of the site environment and the screen makes meteorological observations comparable (as far as possible) across the network, as well as being representative of the wider vicinity.

In some cities, the Council has provided a weather station (sometimes only a thermometer) in the central city area, and we welcome this to provide temperature information where people are going about their day to day activities. But it is essential that the thermometer gives an accurate and representative reading of the temperature of the air. Dunedin City (located at the Octagon) is a good example of this.

In other places there is a choice of weather stations. In Wellington there is an AWS at the Airport, one at Kelburn, in Lower Hutt, Wainuiomata, and Mana Island. The temperature at the Airport site is influenced by the proximity to the sea, particularly when there is a sea breeze. But is has wind exposure quite representative of many parts of the region. Kelburn is located 127 metres above sea level and because of that will, on average, be about 0.8 degrees Celsius cooler than the temperature at sea level. And there will be other influences at other places involving the local environment and characteristics of the larger scale air ventilation.

Adapting nearby data to your location
On Monday 28 January 2013, there was a light southerly wind flow over the region. The Airport was reporting temperatures around 18 to 20 degrees in the afternoon while Lower Hutt was reporting 23 to 24 degrees, and Kelburn had 24 to 25 degrees. Mana Island was reporting 17 to 18 degrees, and Wainuiomata was baking in 26 to 28 degrees. All of these are representative of their vicinity and nearby places that gave similar geography and relationship with the sea.

We show temperatures from these stations more or less in relation to their immediate suburban areas, and most of the time they will be satisfactory. Other times, when conditions are a bit unusual (height of summer, little wind not of the prevailing direction, no cloud), there are going to be significant variations around the region. We want people to make allowance for this when they are consulting our website (or mobile apps) for temperature information in relation to what they may be experiencing in their particular spot.

For Christchurch there is a choice of weather stations. Sometimes Christchurch Airport is more representative of the Eastern suburbs than New Brighton Pier. We expect people to interpret the data on our website when checking out the observations in their location.

New Developments
There are exciting developments on the horizon with weather observations. Really keen weather watchers will already be aware of web sites such as wunderground.com that collect privateer weather station data and display it in a common format. The site has an index to stations in Auckland.

In the UK, The Met Office has developed a service called Weather Observations Website where privateer weather station data is mapped alongside Met Office data as part of a community education, outreach, and data sharing initiative. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology will be fostering the same program.

Unusual Wind Direction

Last Monday evening, having just arrived home after the short walk from Trentham Station, I remarked to my family that it was unusual for the wind to blow from the northeast in Upper Hutt. Five days later and it’s still blowing from there.

For over a week now, mean sea level pressure has been higher than usual south and east of New Zealand while pressures have been lower than usual over the Tasman Sea (to the northwest). This anomalous pattern is not confined to the surface – it extends up through the troposphere and further. This is known as a blocked pattern, where highs and lows become slow moving or stationary. Such slow moving frontal systems can result in heavy and sometimes intense rainfall, and we have seen some of that in the Severe Weather Warnings affecting south Canterbury, Waikato, Coromandel and Gisborne this week.

Animation of MetService MSL analyis charts at 6 hour intervals over the Tasman Sea and New Zealand area, 28 July to 3 August 2012.

The animation here shows the high pressure to the southeast as either a ridge or an anticyclone. The depression over the Tasman Sea has gone through the complete life cycle from early stages of contrasting air masses on 28 and 29 July, through development and deepening on 30 and 31 July, to mature and filling in on 1 and 2 August. Today (3 August) there is a fairly uniform air mass of rotating belts of convection.

Path of the centre of the low (the point of lowest pressure) starting from midday 28 July (top left of map) and ending 6am 3 August 2012.

This simple map shows the meandering path of the centre of the depression during this time. The track starts near the north boundary of the map and ends towards the western boundary.

The satellite image below shows the old low centre this afternoon (3 August) with bands of moderate convection spiralling out.

Visible satellite image at 3pm 3 August 2012 NZST from the MtSat-2 meteorological satellite, courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency.

All this time, the wind flow over central and southern New Zealand has been from the northeast. For Wellington this has resulted in an unusually long period of wind from between east and northeast. Winds of this direction are fairly rare as shown in the diagram below, called a wind rose.

This wind rose was constructed from hourly wind observations. The length of the coloured bars is proportional to the hours of wind from that direction, where 360 is North. The colours further partition the wind into speed ranges. The longest bar represents 12.1%, and the range circle at half way represents 6% (of the time).

Diagrams such as these are called wind roses because, for most stations, the wind blows from many directions and the shape of the resulting diagram looks a bit like a flower. The wind rose here is for day-time in winter at Kelburn (central Wellington) and shows that the wind is mostly from the northwest to north or from between southeast and south. It very seldom blows from the east or west.

The graphic below traces the hourly wind speed and direction between midday 30 July and midday today 3 August 2012. The start point is at 030 13 km/h and the end point is at 080 22 km/h. Can you find the start and end points? :-)

Trace of wind speed vs wind direction of hourly wind recorded at Kelburn, Wellington, between midday 30 July and midday 3 August 2012.

Anyway, you can see that a lot of the time during these last four days, the wind at Kelburn (and most of Wellington) was a moderate easterly. And you don’t often get that for such a long period.

 

What’s causing the higher temps in Christchurch’s Eastern Suburbs?

Introduction

This short article is in response to an emailed complaint about temperatures displayed on the Christchurch Towns & Cities page on Thursday evening, 24 May 2012.

Sent: Thursday, 24 May 2012 10:26 p.m.
To: Enquiries
Subject: Christchurch weather issues!
 
Dear sir/madam,
I am writing regarding the situation with the Christchurch weather forecasts and current temperatures since the introduction of the split map into suburbs. I live in the eastern suburbs and have yet to see a day when the current temperature for the eastern suburbs has been correct! It is complete and utter rubbish and I am very intrigued to know where you are getting the temperatures from?
Attached is a screenshot image of your map this evening taken at 10.20pm …. I have just been outside and I can tell you for sure that the eastern suburbs are not currently at 12.7 degrees. More like around 6 degrees! Also I am certain that the port hills suburbs are not currently sitting at 17.9 degrees as I doubt anywhere in Canterbury reached that temperature today at all!
Chch sub-regional temps 10.20pm 24 May 2012
Please please get on top of this or at least put it back to just a temperature for Christchurch if you are unable to give us accurate readings and forecasts for the suburbs!
Many thanks

Situation

Situation at midnight 24 May 2012

This is the analysis chart for midnight 24/25 May 2012. It shows a strong northwest airstream across the South Island ahead of a cold front advancing from the southwest. It shows two troughs east of the South Island which were producing rain on the West Coast.

Fohn wind

This is a very good example of a “Fohn wind” situation. A Fohn wind is a hot and dry wind in the lee of a mountain range. The air is warmed by the latent heat given up by the condensing water vapour on the upwind side of the mountains. The condensed water falls there as rain and is no longer available to re-evaporate and potentially cool the air again as it descends on the lee side. Sometimes in Canterbury, this warm descending northwesterly wind flow is unable to displace the cool low-level northeasterlies which often precede a cold front. Higher locations like Sugar Loaf and Le Bons Bay are the first to show these higher temperatures as they protrude up into that wind flow.

There are certain geographical situations that will direct these warmer wind flows down to altitudes lower than would otherwise occur. One such location is the Port Hills – the wind flow “sticks” to the lee side and warmer temperatures (and strong northwesterlies) are experienced there.

Observations evening and overnight 24 May 2012

The “Eastern Suburbs” observations are taken from the New Brighton Pier automatic weather station. This graph is a plot of wind direction, wind speed and air temperature from that station between 8pm on 24 May and 8am 25 May 2012.

New Brighton Pier AWS data 8pm 24 May - 8am 25 May 2012

In the evening of the 24th the wind speed is fairly light, less than 10 km/h, and the direction is vary variable – sometimes from the west or northwest but mostly from the southeast. At 10:20pm the temperature was 12.6° and the wind was blowing from the southeast at 6.1 km/h. The “Port Hills” observations are taken from the Lyttelton Pier automatic weather station located at the Port. This graph is a plot of the same elements over the same period.

Lyttleton AWS data 8pm 24 May - 8am 25 May 2012

It shows a period between about 9pm and 1:30am when there was moderate to fresh northwesterlies. During that period the temperature had warmed from about 9° to 16-18° then lowering to 12-15° when the direction changed to northeast. This is clearly a Fohn wind.

The Fohn wind can also be seen in the data from Sugar Loaf:

Sugar Loaf data 3pm 24 May - noon 25 May 2012

With the strong northwesterlies, the temperature is 14-15° with low dew point and Relative Humidity – a typical Fohn wind. Note how the temperature fell dramatically as the wind direction changed to southerly.

The Fohn wind is also observed at Le Bons Bay:

Le Bons Bay data 3pm 24 May - noon 25 May 2012

At Christchurch Airport, the Fohn wind lowered to ground level only briefly, between 4am and 6am.

Christchurch Airport data noon 24 May - noon 25 May 2012

Note the difference in air temperature in relation to the wind direction. Later in the afternoon the direction was from northeast, off the sea. Later in the evening, the direction was more from the north and not from the sea; consequently the temperature was lower.

It appears to me that, apart from the Fohn wind flowing well above Christchurch (to be detected by the higher AWS sensors of Sugar Loaf and Le Bons Bay, and by Lyttelton in the down-slope wind there), there was a further complication, in that air from the northeast and east was warmer by a few degrees than air flowing from the north. I suspect that our email correspondent’s place is located in that northerly flow and it was that colder air stream that he experienced, rather than the warmer northeasterly airstream that was affecting the New Brighton Pier AWS.

Conclusion

Considering the larger meteorological situation on the evening of 24 May 2012, and the common behaviour of the Fohn wind (Canterbury Nor’wester) it seems to me that the weather stations around Christchurch were illustrating correctly the wind flows that were present and where their effects were being experienced.

The science behind the new Auckland forecasts

We’ve added a lot more detail to the forecasts for Auckland on metservice.com.

In addition to the existing Auckland forecast on the Towns & Cities page, we’ve divided the greater Auckland region into five sub-regions – each with its own characteristic  rainfall, temperature and wind patterns:

To provide hourly predictions of air temperature, wind speed and rainfall for these sub-regions, we’re using

  • Data from our own localised-for-New-Zealand weather modelling and statistical processing systems (for more about this, see the blog on MetService’s Investment in Forecasting)
  • Observations of temperature and wind speed from representative weather stations within each of the sub-regions (see next point), which we’re blending with  the modelled data for the first few hours of the forecast.
  • The weather stations we’re using are Whangaparaoa (for North Shore), Whenuapai (for Waitakere), Auckland Airport (for Manukau), and Ardmore (for Hunua). For Auckland City we’ve created a “virtual weather station” near the Newton Interchange; this will do the job for now, but we want to replace it with a real station within Auckland City soon.

 Auckland Central forecast page screenshot

The index map at the bottom left of the map area links back to the Auckland Towns & Cities page you’re already familiar with, containing the overall Auckland urban forecast and max/min temperatures for the next 10 days.

This initiative was partly motivated by the great feedback we received about the ‘dust graphs’ of wind speed and rainfall added to the Christchurch pages in February, to alert people to the potential dust nuisance in the areas affected by liquefaction and, more recently, demolition of large buildings.

As always, we’re looking forward to hearing what you think! Tweet @MetService or drop us an email at enquiries@metservice.com

New feature for metservice.com “towns & cities” – Past Weather

We have added a new feature to the “towns & cities” section on metservice.com. “Past Weather” is now located below the ten day forecast for most locations showing wind, air temperatures and rainfall in a graphical format.

The graph shows the elements for yesterday, the last 7 days, and the last 30 days, as well as ‘historical’ on a calendar monthly basis. The data is detailed further upon mouse-over and includes:

- the highest wind gust
- the direction the wind was blowing from
- the highest and lowest air temperatures; and
- rainfall

Here’s an example for Auckland Airport for “Yesterday”:

There is a drop-down menu to select other station locations in the vicinity of the town or city.

The Historical tab includes information about temperatures and rainfall, but not for wind. This is shown below:

Note that the long term ‘Historical Avg’ figures for air temperatures and rainfall are the averages of the highest, lowest or total over many years (including the last two), but the monthly figures for last year and the previous year are simply the highest or lowest temperature or total rainfall for that single month.

These days almost all meteorological observations are recorded by automated weather stations. Occasionally sensors go awry or there may be communications problems which result in some observations not being made or observations that are invalid. So, in the Past Weather displays some items may be missing …. these instances will be indicated by “n/a” meaning “not available”, or the display element may not appear at all.

We hope that you find this information to be interesting, informative and useful.

NIWA has made all these data available on an observation basis as well as derived statistics from them through their National Climate Database portal. The URL is http://cliflo.niwa.co.nz. Registration and agreement to terms is required, and it is free. Extensive help is provided; it is fairly straight forward.

We have provided this “Past Weather” information from MetService records from these stations so that there is a readily accessible visualisation of past weather in commonly understood time scales … day, week, month, year, and longer term (averages).

Spectacular contrail outbreak over Wellington

On the afternoon of Monday 19 July 2010, a neat set of four persistent contrails moved across the Cook Strait area.

 NASA’s  MODIS Rapid Response System captured the contrails in the image stream from the Aqua space craft which was over Wellington at about 2:20 pm. You can see the image on the MODIS web site here: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=NewZealand.2010200.aqua.1km

 Here’s part of the MODIS image.

MODIS Aqua satellite image in true colour at about 2:20 pm 19 July 2010.

Several things to notice: 

  • There is a contrail in the upper left (labelled NZ152) oriented more or less west-east. I think this was made by Air New Zealand Flight NZ152 which arrived in Wellington at 2:30 pm that afternoon from Melbourne.
  • Then there are four contrails oriented northeast – southwest over Marlborough and Cook Strait. These are labelled 1, 2, 3, 4.  Contrails 2 (and possibly 4) are casting shadows on the ground and sea. The shadows are labelled 2s and 4s.
  • The contrail furthest west (labelled 1) must have come from an aircraft which was on a different route from those that made the other three because it is not parallel with them. This contrail also extends southwest into north Canterbury.
  • The two furthest east appear to converge slightly towards the north. I suspect this is because the (westerly) wind was increasing to the south and so the contrails are being rotated anticlockwise a little.

I took some photos of these contrails from the roof of the MetService building in Kelburn, Wellington at 2:45 pm Monday 19 July 2010, just 25 minutes after this MODIS image. Also, MetService’s web-cam at Christchurch Airport caught the southern end of the easternmost contrail (labelled 1 in the MODIS image) as it moved across Canterbury Plains. 

Two contrails over Wellington Harbour at 2:45 pm on Monday 19 July 2010. This view is towards the north. One contrail (the eastern one on the right) is partly obscured behind the lower cumulus cloud. These two contrails are the eastern most ones in the satellite image.

These two contrails are the western two in the satellite image. This photo was taken at 2:45 pm on Monday 19 July 2010.

Christchurch Airport web-cam photos looking northeast. This is an animation of images at 10 minute intervals from 2 pm to 4:40 pm.

Around Wellington, the wind at the level of the contrails was quite a strong westerly, which explains why the contrails moved quickly across the sky from west to east. The wind in the atmosphere was also increasing with height; this spreads the contrails out enough to make them visible in satellite images. These contrails could still be seen in a lower resolution infra-red satellite image at 5:00 pm when they were 230 km east of Wellington.

In New Zealand, the long distance air routes are all more or less northeast – southwest. Thus, it is easy to see how several aircraft travelling these routes can create a set of parallel contrails. In Europe and North America the air routes are in all directions, and regular grid patterns of contrails are sometimes seen. Sometimes, the contrails in these grid patterns spread out to form a big sheet of high cloud: cirrus or cirrostratus.

This was one of the best and most persistent contrail outbreaks I have observed for some time. Contrails are interesting to watch and sometimes, as with these, there are fascinating details and patterns in the ice clouds as they evolve.

Keep watching.