The Storm of Late May 2010

What a week it has been weatherwise. 

Today MetService has issued a severe weather warning for heavy snow over parts of South Island. Looking back over the past week, it is unusual for a single weather event to result in severe weather warnings for all of widespread heavy rain, severe gales and heavy snow. But this event has been far from typical in its severity and longevity. 

The media have extensively reported the full impacts of the storm, so I won’t go into that here. Instead I’ll look a little more deeply into the meteorology of what’s been going on, starting from day one. 

Here is an animation of the surface weather maps starting midnight on Friday 21 May – frames are every six hours throughout the event, and the isobars are at 2 hPa spacing: 

Loop of isobaric weather maps from midnight 21 May to midday 27 May 2010. Data courtesy US Global Forecast System (GFS)

There is a lot going on in these surface maps. To give a full account of what’s been happening I should really include a discussion about the weather in the upper air – but to keep this post short I’ll concentrate just on the surface here. Points to note from the maps are: 

  • at the start of the loop, an old Low over the south Tasman Sea weakens
  • a new Low forms off the south Queensland coast, then moves southeastwards towards New Zealand and deepens
  • a second Low centre forms west of North Island, then a third forms over Bay of Plenty
  • the third Low takes a very unusual track, moving south then southwestwards towards Canterbury
  • a High moves onto the south Tasman Sea and stays there for the rest of the period
  • a very strong east to southeasterly airstream develops over the bottom half of South Island
  • the Queensland Low eventually moves eastwards over North Island

The centre of the Queensland Low took a rather convoluted track as it approached us: 

Track of the low that formed on 21 May 2010

I guess you could say it “looped the loop” near longitude 170E. This was caused by the formation of the secondary and tertiary Low centres that shifted the “centre of gravity” of the broader system away from the originating Low. 

If you look again closely at the loop of weather maps above, you’ll notice that just after halfway through, the second and third Lows are dumb-belling cyclonically around each other over New Zealand. This motion occurs when a multi-centred Low develops – we sometimes call these systems complex lows. The combined motion plus the spiralling bands of precipitation were well captured by our current radar network. 

The following animation shows where our weather radar is detecting rainfall-sized drops, and the shape of the rain areas illustrates the position and movement of the Lows. Pictures are seven minutes apart and cover the period from the evening of 25 May to the early hours of 26 May. Light falls are yellow and heavier falls blue

Click to view animation. Note – the animation is a large gif file: 2.9MB 

The radar pictures also show the change in texture from north to south, with the northern precipitation looking more speckly (showery) and the southern precipitation more uniform (rainy). 

As I mentioned at the beginning, this storm is not over yet, with snow still to come in the south. You can keep up to date with the latest weather by continuing to check out metservice.com.

One thought on “The Storm of Late May 2010

  1. Thanks Chris. Luv the looped graphics… am going cross-eyed watching it all.
    Dear Reader, please note that the low, although very wet, rather windy and then a great snow-maker, did NOT meet the meteorological requirements to be called a “bomb”.

    The original unit of the deepening rate of one bergeron (1b) as equal to 1 hPa per hour for 24 hours at 60 degrees latitude was given in the paper
    Synoptic-Dynamic Climatology of the “bomb” as seen at
    http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/atoc541/index_files/sandersgyakum1980.pdf
    In this article the Low that tragically disrupted the 1979 Fastnet Race was referered to by Bob Rice as a ‘bomb’ and since then a deepening rate of 1b or more has loosely been called a bomb.

    The storm of late May 2010 deepened over several days, it’s maximum rate of deepening was roughly from 1009 hPa on Saturday night 22 May to 999 hPa on Sunday night 23 May and, when adjusting these pressures to their 60 degree latitude equivalent, this comes to 0.53 b or around half a bomb.

    Bob McDavitt

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